Real Estate News and Advice
October 10, 2008
Learn the Art of the Short Sale Ultimate Real Estate Success SuperConference Today's Insider REALTOR Secret


Search Realty Times
 



















NEED HELP?

Click for Live Support


Call: 214-353-6980






Learn the Art of the Short Sale


2004 Market Could Dull Renters' Negotiating Edge

If your housing plan includes rental housing for the next year or so, now's the time to negotiate a long-term lease that locks in today's concessions.

Renters who aren't yet ready to buy, but lock in long-term, cheaper rents now could be in a better position to save money to buy a home later.

The coming changes in rental market conditions vary by region, but two new apartment housing industry reports indicate 2004 could come with the beginning of the end of incentives landlords have been using in recent years to woo renters.

Forecasts of economic recovery, job growth, shortages in rental housing, greater demand from immigrants and falling affordability in the home-buying market could all combine to spawn higher rents and fewer concessions.

"Asking rents will rise by 1.5 percent in 2004 and effective rents will grow faster as concessions begin to wane in the face of improving demand. Revenues are set to rise as a result, although higher insurance, energy and deferred maintenance costs will challenge operators," according to Marcus & Millichap's latest National Apartment Report.

The report's findings are based, in part, on these market conditions:

  • In order to conserve cash during the recent economic downturn, many adults moved back into their family's home or doubled up with other renters, but as the employment picture brightens, a large share will create separate households, supporting increased tenant demand.

  • Asking rents were flat in 2003, but a reduction in concessions in the final months of the year allowed for a 0.2 percent gain in effective rents. Sizable rent growth is not expected until 2005. As vacancy eases in 2004, asking rents will rise by an average of 1.5 percent.

  • Construction activity is forecast to decline further in 2004, but stronger renter demand may fuel an increase in multi-family development as early as 2005.

    Marcus & Millichap says renters are already behind the eight ball in hot areas -- Orange County, San Diego, Los Angeles and Riverside-San Bernardino, CA markets, as well as Fort Lauderdale, FL.

    Landlords in Las Vegas, NV; Washington, D.C.; Boston, MA and more California cities, Oakland and San Francisco are already benefiting from low levels of new rental housing and the expected employment gains, according to Marcus & Millichap.

    That jibes with news from Novato, CA-based RealFacts, which reports on the Western U.S. market and recently revealed occupancy levels just at or above 95 percent in Los Angeles, Oakland, Orange, San Diego, San Francisco as well as California's Inland Empire and Las Vegas, NV.

    "As property managers struggle to increase occupancy and maintain asking rents, lessees are offered an array of concessions such as lease-signing bonuses; free weeks and months rent; and added amenities such as washers, dryers and free parking. In the hardest hit rental markets -- such as those of Texas and northern California -- many property managers offer potential tenants both reductions in asking rents as well as significant concessions that lower effective rents. In the Dallas/Ft. Worth market, for example, while asking rents declined 3.5 percent over the year, concessions reduced effective rents in some apartment complexes by as much as 20 percent," according to RealFacts.

    Marcus & Millichap said renters could maintain their negotiating edge in Atlanta, GA; Denver, CO and Texas towns, Dallas and Houston, but the report warns high vacancy rates could be a transient condition if the market of renters out paces the supply.

    Not faring as well as its neighbors to the north, the San Jose, CA metropolitan area (Silicon Valley's Capital) still suffers relatively high rents, but persistent vacancies from the dot com demise has kept landlords hopping with concessions and hoping for more renters. Change there isn't expected until 2005.

    Uncertainty was found in the mixed markets of Jacksonville and Orlando FL; New York; N.Y.; Portland, OR and Seattle, WA, according to Marcus & Millichap.

    "Although occupancy rates slipped in many markets during the fourth quarter, in most markets rents were relatively stable. Rent declines, where they occurred, were modest. Even in San Jose, the only market to experience a fourth quarter decline in rents of more than one percent, the rate of decline was significantly less than that of a year ago. While rents have yet to rebound in most markets, the worst seems to have passed. Still, occupancy levels will need to improve in most markets for there to be the constricted supply and excess demand conditions necessary for sustainable rent growth," RealFacts reported on the Western U.S. market.

  • Published: January 28, 2004

    Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.




    Broderick Perkins parlayed a career in old-school journalism into a contemporary digital news service that really hits home.

    The award-winning consumer journalist, originally from Wilmington, DE, is founder, publisher and executive editor of the bootstrap DeadlineNews Group, a Silicon Valley-based editorial content and consulting service specializing in residential real estate, consumer news and related editorial consulting services.

    The DeadlineNews Group includes the website, DeadlineNews.com, offering real estate editorial content and consulting services, and its back shop, the Deadline Newsroom, an open house on news that really hits home.

    Perkins obtained his formal journalism education from University of Delaware and a journalism boot camp, the Institute of Journalism Education at the University of California-Berkeley. He went on to 20 years of service as a daily newspaper journalist at the Wilmington, DE News Journal and San Jose, CA Mercury News.

    Perkins covered housing on the San Jose Mercury News reporting team which earned a General News Reporting Pulitzer Prize in 1989 for coverage of the Loma Prieta earthquake.

    He has also produced real estate, consumer and small business content for the Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, RealtyTimes.com, Nolo.com, Better Homes and Gardens, the National Association of Realtors, Homestore/Move and Intuit/Quicken among more than three dozen publications.

    In addition to managing the DeadlineNews Group, Perkins most recently served as chief editorial consultant for Nolo's Essential Guide To Buying Your First Home, Nolo, and writes real estate television scripts for RealtyTimes.com.




    Find an Agent



    Real Estate News Network

    You must enable Javascript to view the Video content and Navigation on this site.





    Mortgage Rates
    30 Year Fixed: 5.94%
    15 Year Fixed: 5.63%
    1 Year Adj: 5.15%
    (U.S. Weekly Averages)

    Today's Headlines

    Exclusive Leads In Your Market







    Agent Publicity | Market Conditions Interview | Local Market Conditions | Video Newsletter | Article Index | Terms & Conditions | Privacy | Contact Us

    Copyright © 2004 Realty Times®. All Rights Reserved.